All seats are taken in lecture hall 1 on day one of eRIC. Indeed, there are full lines of people lined up to catch a glimpse of Cobelens as well. To listen to 45 minutes of his talk on geopolitical threats and cyber and drones as big gamechangers. Before sharing his story, he first asks the audience who here is a pessimist. "Because these are not fun times. It is much needed now to be an optimist. Fortunately, I am an optimist myself," while referring to the image of the Dalai Lama.
A third world war? Not today
Cobelens takes attendees through numerous informative slides on threats: from the Cold War, the fall of the wall, Covid19, Ukraine, Russia's Kalingrad, sabotage of undersea infrastructure and on and on. "In 2014, Europe showed that it can indeed act as one block. When Russia invaded Ukraine, a clear border was jointly drawn. Since then, it sometimes seems as if we have sunk back into our own daily concerns. But the reality is that geopolitics never stands still. The idea that Europe can simply be taken is simply nonsense. Don't buy into all the stories about WWIII. Yes, there are tensions. But a third world war? Not today. But it is clear that cooperation, coordination and preparedness are essential," Cobelens explains. From the Middle East to Eastern Europe: the world is a chessboard with many players. Conflicts such as those between Israel and Palestinian territories, or tensions surrounding Iran and Saudi Arabia, show how complicated it is. The oil crisis is also not over for the time being, but again, it will not last that long, he expects, partly because China and Pakistan also play a role in it. The stakes are too high. "But this crazy president from America is not making things easier," he adds. At the same time, there is no simple solution. International organizations such as the United Nations play a role, but often have limited clout. Real solutions require global cooperation - and that is not a given.
Massive damage from drones
"Drones are the real gamechanger of our time. Where once tanks and planes made the difference, it is now drones and digital systems that are changing warfare. Every day, thousands of drones are deployed in modern conflicts. They are cheap, effective and increasingly smart thanks to artificial intelligence. Some 70-80% of all deaths and injuries in Ukraine come from drones and not direct fire. Even small drones can do enormous damage. That makes defense more complex and more urgent. The Netherlands and Europe are therefore investing more and more in anti-drone technology and digital security." But the fact that drones have been spotted over the Netherlands recently does not, as far as Cobelens is concerned, lead to a direct relationship with Russia, but rather to young boys with whom probably innocent contact has been made. "In any case, it has given us a wake-up call." To demonstrate the immense power and potential of AI-controlled drones, Cobelens shares a video from the 2018 Olympics. During the opening ceremony there, hundreds of drones stole the show, forming spectacular patterns in the air.
Continuing to strengthen
He expresses concern about ballistic missiles. "You have to have an answer to that with patriot missiles. Measures must be taken to make more anti-military missiles. And that means buying more in Europe. I also really feel the emotion sometimes to have America expelled from NATO, but we can't do without it. So we are going to continue to strengthen ourselves." Dependence on allies such as the United States remains high, but Europe increasingly realizes that it must also take responsibility for itself. "The war should not come to the Netherlands. We do have to prepare for it." Pieter Cobelens also briefly takes attendees through the Defense Note 2024. In a nutshell: lots of money goes to cyber offensive, more modern weapon systems from air, ground and sea, 57 pieces of F-35 (opponents should take note of this - big deterrent effect), more unmanned equipment, expansion of the navy ánd lots of money to minesweepers. "We as North Sea countries are by far the best in that area of sweeping bottoms. So you are interesting to make deals with someday."
AI and quantum
Artificial Intelligence is changing everything. From military applications to business management, those not using AI are falling behind. "The future superpowers are the countries that know the most about digital business. AI is no longer future music; it is already determining who is ahead. In addition, we are on the eve of breakthroughs such as quantum computers, which can completely change existing security. This makes investing in new forms of security crucial. Cybersecurity never goes away. It will always be a good investment."
And what can you do yourself?
While much is at play on a global level, security also starts close to home. Not out of fear, but out of realism. Cobelens asks those present who already has an emergency kit in their home. A few hands go up in the air. "If the government says everyone should do this, you should do this. At a minimum, buy that radio. Okay, I also don't have as many bottles of water in the house as they advise, but I can still empty my 20,000 gallon fish pond with the lifestraw. And I can do some cooking too, because I have solar panels," he laughs. "Worrying doesn't help, preparing does."
Pure leadership
Whether in defense, technology or organizations, it's all about teamwork and leadership. "A good team is stronger than individuals. You see that in the military, but just as much in companies and sports teams. Just look at how the Dutch relay team at the Olympics the other day stood for 'one team, one mission.' And I myself had the great honor of flying with the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds. Then you fly at 800 km per hour and everyone just looks at that front plane, one leader that is. That's pure leadership."
Realistic, but not pessimistic
Or "The world is troubled, but not hopeless. Europe faces the challenge of becoming stronger, smarter and more independent both militarily and digitally. War is the result of failing deterrence. So get that in order. But keep your hands off our country! That is the message I want to give at this fair today," concludes a combative Pieter Cobelens.